A particular state's murder rate per 100,000 for 1999 through 2010:
1999 | 6.6 | ||
2000 | 6.2 | ||
2001 | 6.6 | ||
2002 | 5.8 | ||
2003 | 5.1 | ||
2004 | 6.1 | ||
2005 | 6.9 | ||
2006 | 6.3 | ||
2007 | 6.2 | ||
2008 | 7.7 | ||
2009 | 6.5 | ||
2010 | 7.0 |
There was a change in state law for which the first full year was 2008. The average for 1999-2007 was 6.2; for 2008-2010: 7.1 (rounded). Std. dev. is 0.494 and 0.492, respectively. Using Student's T (appropriate because n is so small for both year ranges), for a 95% confidence interval, .380 and 1.222 respectively. This indicates that the 13.9% increase in murder rates for the years 2008-2010 is not statistically significant; the uncertainty range for 1999-2007 is 5.82 to 6.58; for 2008-2010, 5.84 to 12.91. In short, it is impossible to determine at the 95% confidence level if the change in law caused the changed the increase in murder rate. You have to get down to the 80% confidence level before you get statistical significance -- which isn't terribly impressive.
Interestingly: enough the firearms homicide rate, which may or may not include justifiable homicides, rose 25% -- far more than the murder rate.
Do I have this right?
UPDATE: I ran it by a nationally known economist who confirms that the methodology is right.
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